Cardamom predictions
A machine-learning model and backtested statistical methods, trained on 10+ years of Spices Board auction history — refreshed with every auction, verified against the archive.
Cardamom price dips 31 rupees on 18 Aug 2026
The latest auction on 18 Aug 2026 saw the average price at 3099 rupees per kg, down 31 rupees from 3129 on 17 Aug 2026. Top-lot maximum fell to 4042 rupees from 4252 the previous day. Volume was strong with 131,936 kg sold of 138,947 kg arrived, a sell-through of 95.0% up from 94.7%, and arrivals more than double the previous day's 62,701 kg. Over 30 days the average is 3132 rupees; today's 3099 is below that average by 33 rupees. The 30-day range was 2938 to 3320. Historically, today's average is higher than 95.8% of all auction days since 2014. The prediction engine estimates the next auction at 3101 rupees, and September is historically the strongest selling month.
This week's watchlist
- Check top-lot maximum trend daily
- Monitor sell-through percentage changes
- Track volume vs arrival ratios
Weather & arrivals
Belt weather next 3 days: Puttady light rain 6 mm; Bodinayakanur light rain 7 mm; may slightly delay drying but arrivals likely stable.
Other spices · Cochin
Other Cochin spice quotes available: Pepper Garbled 708, Pepper Ungarbled 688, Nutmeg With Shell 320, Nutmeg Without Shell 595, Clove 810, Mace Red 1400 rupees per kg.
Written by AI from the day's Spices Board auction figures · may contain errors · not advice
Price outlook
Computed from 3,208 auction days (07-Nov-2014 → 23-Sep-2026) · updated with every archive refresh.
Recent trend & 30-day projection
Last 90 auction days, then a dotted seasonal projection with a percentile band.
Seasonal price calendar
Each month's average price relative to its year's average, across the full archive. Above 100 = historically expensive month (good to sell); below 100 = historically cheap (good to buy).
Year-ahead seasonal curve
Next 12 months: current price level carried along the historical seasonal shape.
Arrival (supply) outlook
Expected monthly arrivals — average of the same month in the last 3 years.
Supply & demand signals
Arrivals, sell-through and shock detection for the current period.
Arrivals vs price relationship
Computed from month-on-month changes across the full archive.
Current streak & historical odds it ends
Based on how long similar up/down streaks lasted historically.
Which centre is likely to price better
Weighted averages, last 30 auction days at each e-auction centre.
| Auctioneer (top by avg, 30d) | Wtd avg | Qty sold |
|---|---|---|
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Latest auction vs the recent norm
Z-scores of the latest day's price and arrivals against the trailing 60 auction days. |z| > 2 is flagged unusual.
| Check | Latest | 60-day norm | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
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How these numbers are made
Everything on this page is computed in your browser from the same Spices Board auction archive that powers the Charts page — transparent, backtested methods you can verify yourself:
- Next-auction estimate — a 70/30 ensemble of a statistical anchor (latest price blended with the 5-day average) and a machine-learning model; both were validated in a walk-forward backtest over the full archive. Band is ± one standard deviation of recent day-to-day moves.
- ML model — a ridge-regression autoregression (price lags, moving averages and seasonality features) trained in your browser on the entire archive each time the page loads; no data leaves your device.
- 30 / 90-day outlook — current 10-day level × the historical seasonal ratio between today's month and the target month.
- Seasonal index — each month's weighted average ÷ that year's average, averaged across all years in the archive (100 = a normal month).
- Price corridor — 10th–90th percentile of the last 30 auction-day averages.
- Arrivals outlook — same-month average of the last 3 years.
- Elasticity — least-squares slope of monthly % price change vs monthly % arrival change.
- Reversal odds — among all historical up/down streaks that reached the current length, the share that ended the next day.
- Anomaly watch — z-score of the latest day against the trailing 60 auction days.
Source: Spices Board India small-cardamom e-auctions (Puttady & Bodinayakanur). Indicative, not advice.